Bernard Hodes Group

Workforce Planning in an Economic Downturn

The August unemployment and jobs report has been released and the numbers were not good for the acute health care setting (or the workforce in general). Hospitals shed 700 jobs in August. Overall the health care industry added 27,900 positions in August and 180,400 new jobs over the course of 2009. These overall numbers include all job gains including physicians’ offices, dialysis centers, blood and organ banks, ambulatory care, etc.

Cumulative data for hospitals shows that from January 1 to September 1 of this year, hospitals added 17,100 positions as compared to 94,100 over the same period in 2008 and 66,800 for that same period in 2007.

We know anecdotally that hospitals are being cautious about adding positions due to the overall economy this year and we also know there have been significant hospital layoffs in some geographic areas. The ranks of uninsured have proliferated, leading to more uncompensated care. The overall financial situation for much of the hospital industry has worsened due to a number of factors. New building has decreased. Donations and endowments are down.

Additionally, many members of the health care workforce have had to rethink retirement due to the economy and are working longer than they anticipated. Those who were part time or per diem may have had to extend their hours to compensate for spouses who have either been laid off or are under employed. These factors have resulted in precious few job openings in general.

Adding to all the above is the huge unknown of health care reform and the uncertainty of how that will look and how the coming reform will impact hospitals, technology, usage, staffing, etc. Add to this the threat of an H1N1 epidemic this fall and you are looking into the great unknown.

Given all of these factors, what is a cogent argument for the health care recruiter or HR executive doing the work to develop a workforce plan during these tough economic times?

One reason is the possibility that the lull in recruitment may have afforded you the opportunity to think a bit more strategically and to plan for future needs more proactively than in the more hectic past.

Just a cursory look at the health care workforce demographic projections is enough to make the most sanguine person nervous. To say nothing of the U.S. population projections. No one is unaware of the aging RN population or of this same phenomenon in other health care professional groups. And we are all bracing for the impact of the aging Boomer population on health care usage.

Workforce planning can seem like a daunting task if you look at the overall big picture, but taking baby steps can both get you started and also demonstrate that it really is not as difficult as you may have thought.

Why not take some time right now to look at where you currently stand in terms of your workforce-even if you only gather information on ages by department and type of position (including managers), and average age at retirement? Capturing just these current numbers and plotting five and ten years down the road will usually be a real eye opener, particularly when you look at some of those small departments with just a handful of employees. If your current HRIS system cannot provide this information, now would be an excellent time to see if you can change that so that you can easily retrieve this information and get a birds eye view of those demographics.

Looking at your own organization, what are projected changes that might impact hiring needs? Are you adding or contracting services, changing or augmenting technology, changing staffing patterns? Are you regularly having dialogue with practice managers about these changes and forecasting future needs for your high volume areas and hard to fill positions?

Look externally a bit and investigate migration in and out of your area, focusing on age and ethnic groups. What does your current population look like? Do your caregivers reflect the community they serve? What is the business climate in your area? What are your local colleges and universities doing in terms of enrollments and graduations in health care professions programs? Are there new programs or are the current programs contracting or being dropped? What will the impact of all of these factors be on the supply of health care professionals for your facility or system?

These baby steps will give you a real competitive advantage in the months and years ahead. And will lead to your being able to develop a true workforce plan.
Beginning work on this vital initiative now will stand you in good stead when the crunch comes. And it is coming…

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