I’ve been pondering the so-called Jobless Recovery. Like many of you, I am wondering what the jobs of tomorrow will look like in the United States, with manufacturing essentially off-shored, most businesses contracting, and only a few industries like health care and some sectors of technology enjoying job creation.
Our unemployment rate keeps climbing (9.8% in September, 2009) and the published rates don’t take into account those who have simply stopped looking for employment or those who are underemployed. The recession has claimed 4,804,642 jobs since its start in December of 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Surely when businesses are in the position of hiring again, they will tap those who have been laid off and increase the hours of those current employees who have had to take ‘furloughed’ hours or otherwise compress their work schedules.
Even the health care industry has not been immune to downsizing, layoffs and restructuring. Just this week I read about a large health care system in Chicago that is undertaking a layoff of over 300 employees. And this particular layoff is just the latest of many in the health care arena this year. What impact health care reform will have on health care employment remains to be seen and impossible to predict until we have a much better idea of what shape that reform will take. Realistically, though, reform could transform the health care employment landscape and not necessarily for the better.
All of these factors sparked an interest in me to re-read a book, written in the 90s, called Job Shift. When I opened it and read the first chapter I realized elements of it could have been written last week. The author, William Bridges, says this: “Today’s organization is rapidly being transformed from a structure built out of jobs to a field of ‘work needing to be done’.” Bridges comments further that “jobs are artificial units superimposed on this field.” He also notes that the concept of ‘jobs’ arose with the Industrial Revolution to meet the needs of a new type of workplace and that currently we are undergoing another transformation involving ‘dejobbing’.
Dejobbing is a result of many factors, including the technology revolution, which has rendered entire classifications of jobs obsolete. This holds true from manufacturing, where robotics have become common, to retail sales, which is increasingly being done online. A trip to a major department store these days in often a lonely exercises, with few shoppers and even fewer sales staff. Bookstores are increasingly empty while Amazon thrives. Online shopping is more convenient, usually quicker and you can most often get exactly what you want without spending hours browsing. What’s not to like?
Another impact factor is the tremendous number of mergers in all industries in the past couple of decades. Remember when Delta and Northwest were two separate airlines? FedEx and UPS? When Chicago had both Marshall Field AND Macy’s? There are countless examples just like these and every merger results in fewer staff in the merged company.
The lust for productivity also is a factor here. American workers are the most productive in the world. We work longer hours and more days with fewer vacation days than just about any industrialized country. Try foisting our work schedules on anyone in France or Italy. But increased productivity drives profits, despite the effect on the workforce. If you can do the same work with fewer people, why not?
Another factor is the rise in temporary employment, which has occurred over the past couple of decades. Total outsourcing of the entire employee component is now a real possibility.
Also, jobs are becoming more fluid, with job descriptions constantly evolving as responsibilities change to meet company needs. This requires a nimble and accommodating workforce.
With all these changes, what will our jobs look like in the near future? What will happen to those who have been victims of the massive layoffs in the past year? We have been talking about retraining for years, but there does not appear to be any national initiative to analyze where jobs will be in the future and how we can train laid-off workers to fill those jobs. In some industries, because of rapid technology changes and other factors, we don’t even know what the jobs of the future will be.
And how do we advise our children who are preparing to go to college? What majors should they take and what kind of careers will be there for them in the future? These are not rhetorical questions. I am increasingly concerned that the future of work is at stake.
At the moment, at this point in 2009, the hot industries appear to be health care, green industries, government and technology. But I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to any of these stars in looking to the future.
I spoke to two new college graduates recently. Both were stellar students with excellent grades and civic participation. One matriculated in civil engineering. The other graduated pre-law and completed a paralegal course, with a view towards going to law school at night and working as a paralegal (while learning more about his discipline) during the day.
Both were in for a shock. Neither one can even get an interview in their respective fields, much less be offered a position.
Experienced attorneys and engineers I know tell me that work in their fields has greatly diminished over the past year, and that like so many other industries, potential retirees did not retire, due to the great losses to IRA, 401(k) and pension programs. Even large firms and practices greatly downsized due to the rough economic climate of the past 18 months.
So where does this leave the new graduates who are hoping to find work? How do they advance their careers?
Short answer – they don’t. Right now, both of the above mentioned grads are continuing with their college jobs - one in a restaurant and the other in retail - as a means of keeping body and soul together while they pursue better options. Both are rather cheerful, and not disheartened to find that after four or five years of very expensive college, they cannot get a position.
The engineer is considering working for Teach for America, a non-profit that matches teachers with kids in American rural and low income public schools. Math and science professionals are in high demand, so he feels confident he will be accepted if he applies.
According to a recent article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution, this has been the best placement year ever for the Teach for America organizations. More than 4,000 new teachers have signed up for the corps to teach in public schools across the country. The average SAT score of the students applying for these positions was 1344, and their average grade-point average was 3.6. Top people, putting their education to use in fields other than those for which they trained. New teachers are placed in regions across the United States that are considered rural or underserved.
Teach for America is part of AmeriCorps, so these new grads may also be able to negotiate loan forbearance and even loan forgiveness if they are accepted to teach in underserved areas. Given the thousands of dollars in loans the average college grad has to repay, this is no small thing. And in many regions, the program has partnered with area universities to offer subsidized Masters degree programs in Education for interested participants.
How it Impacts Health Care
Is this where our health care professionals will go? How will we get them back into acute and long term care when we need them in a few years? So many will be on to other career paths and out of the running to serve the elderly and ill populations who need them.
It happened in the 80s and it is happening again. Those valuable, hard won placements in schools of nursing, PT and Pharmacy will not pay off in wonderful new graduates stepping into waiting jobs. Instead, those would-be RNs, PTs and Pharmacists will meander into other areas of work – perhaps unrelated to their original fields of study – and be lost forever to the health care workforce.
And although we are in pretty good shape at present, I still shudder when I look back at those BLS projections for 2015 and beyond. We will have a shortage of epic proportions. Few organizations take on true workforce planning, and many will be caught unawares when that tidal wave rolls in.
This past week, the Bernard HODES Group exhibited at the annual conference of the Society for Healthcare Strategy and Market Development (SHSMD) held in Orlando, Florida. As we know, many associations and conferences have experienced at least a 20% decline in their attendance, however SHSMD only had a 17% decrease in their number of final attendees (over 700) and they had the most exhibitors they have ever had—over 120!! Steve Mitchell, Christina Tierney and Judith Russell manned the booth and attended some of the sessions. The keynote session that created the most “chatter” was the founder of the company “Life is Good.” He had a very interesting story to tell about the startup of his company.When some attendees were asked what their CEO’s are most concerned about, attendees cited costs first, then keeping physicians engaged (not losing market share) and finally, maintaining patient satisfaction at a high level.Many attendees stopped by to discuss social media, especially since this is a very hot topic right now. They expressed the need for more strategic thinking and planning around this and benchmarking what their current online brand actually is. Christina circulated throughout this conference to actually interview some of the attendees. Please check these out:
Expo Floor Interview Janet with Witt Keifer SHSMD 2009
Shannon C Isom, Associate Director Marketing and Community Relations, Scott & White, Austin, TX
Diane Weathers, Sr. VP University Advancement & Communications, University of Medicine & Dentistry of New Jersey
Kathleen Dean, Marketing & Communication, Oregon Health & Science, University of Portland, OR
Since Facebook has become one of the fastest growing social networks in the world, many people are questioning exactly who they should befriend on this social networking site.
Facebook has become a wonderful way to reconnect with old friends, neighbors, classmates, relatives and former co-workers. But when it comes to connecting with people you work with, you might want to give friending a second thought.
According to a recent issue of HR Advisor, a survey conducted by OfficeTeam, a staffing service that places highly skilled administrative specialists, befriending people at work, especially your boss, can be very awkward. A phone survey with randomly selected executives from some of the nation’s largest employers, indicated that 48% were uncomfortable with being friended by someone they managed and 47% of them felt the same way about being friended by their bosses.
The feeling of discomfort extended beyond employees and bosses to include peers, vendors and clients.
What execs said about their comfort level in friending …
Boss
Co-workers
Reports
Clients
Vendors
Very Comfortable
19%
13%
12%
07%
06%
Somewhat comfortable
28%
38%
32%
34%
23%
Not very comfortable
15%
13%
15%
17%
24%
Not comfortable at all
32%
28%
33%
33%
38%
Don’t know
06%
08%
08%
09%
09%
“The line between personal and professional has grown increasingly blurred as more people use social networking websites for business purposes,” said Robert Hosking, executive director of OfficeTeam. He said that managers, even if they aren’t going to connect with business contacts on social networking sites, need to be prepared to deal with requests for friending and such.
Hosking advises managers and employees to familiarize themselves with all the different options and controls social media sites offer. Use privacy settings and create different friend or contact lists to control how—and with whom—information is shared. “Individuals should classify their professional contacts into a ‘work’ list and limit what personal details this group can view,” said Hosking.
Here are some common Facebook situations professionals may encounter—and some recommendations for handling them:
• An Embarrassing photo of you surfaces on the site. Untag yourself and change your privacy settings so photos are viewable only by your close friends. Be aware of situations that could be potentially embarrassing when you are being photographed.
• Someone makes a friend request but you don’t want to connect with them. You may have to accept requests from co-workers to avoid slighting them, but add them to your “work” list and adjust the privacy settings so you can separate your work contacts from your personal contacts.
• You’re considering including your boss in your friends list. Think twice before reaching out to your boss. It could become very awkward for both of you.
• Joining a variety of groups. You should only join groups that really interest you. Keep the groups you join separate between your personal life and your professional life. Be very careful of comments you make on groups, especially your professional ones; people you come into contact with in the course of your job may be a members of the same groups.
• Fan Pages. Fan pages on Facebook are visible to anyone who can view your profile, avoid becoming a fan of any page you are uncomfortable sharing with anyone in your network.
• Online quizzes. Stop and think for before taking online quizzes and posting the results to your Facebook page. Do you really want your professional contacts to know which Disney character you most resemble?
• Political and religious views. Political and religious views can potentially create uncomfortable situations and slant the way people think of you. Therefore they should only be shared with your personal contacts and not your professional contacts.
Bottom line here-enjoy your networking on sites like Facebook, but be savvy about it.
